Sterling Price (GBP) Fundamental Forecast: Neutral
- Sterling drifts lower on poor UK sentiment data.
- GBP/USD downside limited as PM Johnson leads the polls.
Brand New Q4 GBP Forecast and Top Trading Opportunities
Sterling is testing recent lows against the US dollar – driven today by weak UK PMIs and better-than-expected US PMI readings – but retains an underlying bid on the back of the UK PM Boris Johnson’s standing in the latest General Election polls. PM Johnson retains a strong lead over the Labour’s Jeremy Corbyn with a range of polls giving Johnson an average lead of around 14 points, enough to give the Conservative’s a working majority in Parliament.
While Johnson retains this lead, Sterling will remain supported at, or near, current levels waiting for a sharp push higher if the polls are confirmed on December 12. If PM Johnson’s numbers slip over the next three weeks – and it is a small if at the moment – then Sterling bulls may re-evaluate their positions. As we stand, Sterling’s upside and downside remain limited.
There is no heavyweight UK data out next week. Sterling-pairs may see some volatility from a range of other releases next week, with RBA’s Lowe speaking on Tuesday, US GDP and PCE data on Wednesday, German CPI on Thursday and Euro-Zone CPI and Canadian GDP on Friday. Liquidity will turn lower on Thursday and Friday due to the US Black Friday holiday/s.
For a full rundown of all market moving economic data and events see the DailyFX Calendar
GBP/USD trades either side of 1.2850 and is supported by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 1.2838, ahead of a cluster of recent around 1.2815. A golden cross – 50-dma up through the 200-dma – made on November 11 continues to provide a bullish sentiment.
GBP/USD Daily Price Chart ( – November 22, 2019)
IG Client Sentiment shows that traders are 56% net-long GBP/USD, a bearish contrarian bias.