An ideal scenario would see the UK leave the bloc with some sort of trade agreement and clarity over the future relationship with the EU, they said. But Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s fractious negotiations with the EU – and the UK Parliament’s refusal to ratify a deal thus far – is causing global investors to panic at the knock-on effect a no deal could have on markets around the world. The possibility of a hard Brexit is threatening global market stability, Bloomberg has reported.
They said a multitude of high-impact risks could come about if Mr Johnson fails to secure a deal, or attempts to leave the bloc without a deal on October 31.
Parliament will meet on October 19, for the first emergency Saturday sitting in over 30 years, in an attempt to break the Brexit impasse currently dividing the British Parliament.
Europe could be pushed into a recession while emerging markets could be routed as a result of a hard Brexit.
Speaking to Bloomberg, Alessio de Longis, a New York-based multi-asset fund manager at Invesco, said: “The rule of thumb that we have followed as global investors in the last three years has generally played out.
Uncertainty about the outcome of the next week has global investors worried about a no deal Brexit
Global investors are panicking about the knock on effect of a hard Brexit
“The further you are away from Europe and UK in terms of assets, the less the impact.”
Mark Dowding, the chief investment officer at BlueBay Asset Management in London, also agreed no-deal would be highly disruptive.
He told Bloomberg: “A Halloween horror show could catch markets by surprise.
“A no-deal outcome would be highly disruptive and likely to have market impact which would potentially extend beyond Europe.”
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Mr Johnson arrives at the State Opening of Parliament on Monday
The publication said since a more detailed phase of Brexit talks was launched on Friday, betting odds of a no-deal scenario playing out at all this year dropped below 15 percent.
They also cited data from Normura International Plc, which showed $2trillion of public and private debt was held overseas in 2018.
Jordan Rochester, a currency strategist at the London-based firm, said: “Both sides can prepare as much as they can, but with these things, it’s the unexpected that turns a bad situation into something worse.
“Day One of Brexit won’t necessarily have the worst-case scenarios played out.
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An estimated number of jobs threatened per country in case of no deal Brexit
A map showing how a hard Brexit could effect EU member states
“But over days and weeks, the impact starts to become very visible.”
Experts predicted if Britain leaves without a deal, it would first have a huge effect on the pound.
Banks including Morgan Stanley, estimated the British currency could fall by around a fifth to reach parity with the dollar under a hard Brexit.
Last week, Sterling surged after reports suggested hopes for a deal.
A map showing the different currencies used across the European continent
But the value of the pound slumped on Monday as Michel Barnier said Boris Johnson’s latest proposals lacked detail.
Meanwhile, after late-night talks with a DUP delegation at Number 10 on Monday night, Irish broadcaster RTE suggested fresh proposals for breaking the Brexit deadlock will now be tabled when UK negotiators meet with European Commission representatives in Brussels.
Mr Johnson’s proposals, which would see Northern Ireland quit the Customs Union but stay in the single market for goods, have been characterised as cutting Northern Ireland off from the rest of the United Kingdom.
On Tuesday morning, chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier said Mr Johnson’s latest proposals -submitted after his late-night meetings – are “not good enough”.
No deal could create a global financial crash, experts have warned
But former ERG chairman Jacob Rees-Mogg attempted to quash panic as Brexit deadline day fast approaches.
Mr Rees-Mogg said he believes Boris Johnson has sufficient backing to get a Brexit deal through the House of Commons.
Speaking on LBC, the leader of the House of Commons said: “I think the votes are now there for a deal.
“There is just a mood in the country and politicians have to be to some extent sensitive to the national mood that we want to get on with this.”