EUR/USD Prices, Charts, and Analysis
- The EU economy ekes out minimal growth of 0.1% in Q1.
- Germany may enter a mild recession.
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Seasonally adjusted Q1 GDP increased by 0.1% in the Euro Area and by 0.2% in the EU compared to the previous quarter, according to the second estimate published by Eurostat today. The Euro Area q/q and y/y data came in line with Eurostat’s preliminary estimate.
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The latest German ZEW indicator of economic sentiment missed market expectations and declined to -10.7, its lowest reading since December 2022. According to the data provider ZEW, ‘financial market experts anticipate a worsening of the already unfavorable economic situation in the next six months. As a result, the German economy could slip into a recession, albeit a mild one. The sentiment indicator decline is partly due to expectations of further interest rate hikes by the ECB.’
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The two data releases barely moved the Euro in already thin trading conditions. EUR/USD remains just under 1.0900, aided in part by a slightly weaker US dollar. EUR/USD is trapped in a tight trading range with initial support at 1.0845 ahead of 1.0787. Initial resistance is seen around 1.0935 ahead of 1.1033. Both the 20- and 50-day moving averages are also in play and need to be watched.
EUR/USD Daily Price Chart – May 16, 2023
Chart via TradingView
| Change in | Longs | Shorts | OI |
| Daily | -4% | 8% | 1% |
| Weekly | 27% | -14% | 5% |
Retail Trading Bias is Mixed
Retail trader data shows 56.80% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.31 to 1.The number of traders net-long is 0.76% higher than yesterday and 41.69% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 13.86% higher than yesterday and 14.14% lower from last week.
We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/USD prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/USD trading bias.
What is your view on the EURO – bullish or bearish?? You can let us know via the form at the end of this piece or you can contact the author via Twitter @nickcawley1.